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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.