Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
