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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.