🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Earned $436,000 on Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the event. Changing Odds in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the leader would be no longer in control by the end of January surged in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been apprehended. One account, which joined the platform recently and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Market statistics shows that users assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the odds had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of January 3rd, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on non-public details," stated a financial reform advocate. A small number of other platform users also profited significant sums from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A bill introduced on recently seeks to ban federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Industry Context Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting industry. An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."