Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
